The Next Masahiro Tanaka?

This Masahiro Tanaka guy just might be an alright pitcher. At 8-1 with a league-leading 2.06 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, Tanaka is the best pitcher in the American League. So much for all the haters who laughed at the $155M contact the Yankees handed him before throwing a MLB pitch.

Tanaka isn’t the only former Nippon Pro Baseball (NPB) star cutting through MLB hitters like a hot knife through butter. Yu Darvish is also one of the best 10 pitchers on the planet. Hisashi Iwakuma was an All-Star in 2013 and finished 3^rd in the AL CY Award voting. Koji Uehara’s performance over the past two seasons might be the most dominant consecutive relief seasons in MLB history (98.0 IP, 49 H, 12 BB, 135 K, 1.01 ERA, 0.62 WHIP) – at ages 38 and 39.

So the next time a Japanese ace is getting crazy media hype and some jackass refers to him as the next Dice-K, punch that guy in the nose for being a mouth-breathing moron. That (racist, frankly) comparison isn’t even much of a criticism based in reality. Matsuzaka was worth 9.4 WAR his first two MLB seasons and helped Boston win a World Series. He’s also 2-0 with 32 K in 29.1 IP and a 2.45 ERA for the Mets this year as a valuable swing-man.

Clearly, elite-level NPB pitchers have proven that there isn’t that much of a transition to crossover success in MLB. So the obvious question exists – who is the next Masahiro Tanaka, the next Japanese star pitcher that will light MLB on fire?

I’ve identified 5 NPB pitchers (plus one bonus pitcher) with the potential to become impact MLB stars in 2015 and beyond. None of them are as talented as Tanaka, but you can bet there are 30 MLB teams that would love to add any of them to their organization. Here are my top 5 targets for MLB clubs with scouting reports and video (statistics updated on June 1, 2014):

#1 Shohei Otani, RHP (6-4, 198) – Age 19

2014 NPB Statistics: 4-1, 3.26 ERA, 8 GS, 49.2 IP, 53 H, 17 BB, 49 K

Overpowering fastball sits 94-97 and has hit 100 as NPB starting pitcher. Compliments fastball with a slurvy-breaking ball at 78-81 and splitter at 90-93. Amateur phenom that seriously considered bypassing NPB to sign MLB contract out of HS. Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters took a chance and selected him in 1^st Round of NPB Draft. Otani signed contract after receiving considerable pressure from country and family to do so. Perfect pitchers build – has already put on 9 pounds since last season and could easily add another 25 pounds as he matures. Body type is very similar to a young Yu Darvish, who is now 6-5/225. Great athlete – Otani is the only two-way starter in Japan. Currently hitting .291/.354/.465 as outfielder on days he is not pitching. Was 3-0 with 4.23 ERA and 46 K in 61.2 IP as 18-year old NPB rookie in 2013. Control is rapidly improving – 3.1 BB/9 in 2014 vs 4.8 BB/9 in 2013.

Video:

#2 Shintaro Fujinami, RHP (6-6, 187) – Age 20

2014 NPB Statistics: 3-3, 3.56 ERA, 9 GS, 55.2 IP, 42 H, 29 BB, 52 K

Fastball sits at 90-95 and explodes out of his hand. Has two-plane breaking curveball at 73-75. Also throws splitter at 89-92 and cutter at 87-89. Lives at the top of the zone – needs to learn to utilize his natural arm angle, get on top of ball and pitch in lower quadrants. Very tall and skinny, built just like Chris Sale and Jack McDowell. Ideal height but does not have body type that will put on much weight. Legendary HS pitcher, 1^st Round pick by Hanshin Tigers. Went 10-6 with 2.75 ERA and 126 K in 137.2 IP as 19-year old rookie with Hanshin in 2013. Needs to work on control of fastball, getting ahead of batters more frequently.

Video (Skip to 4:15):

#3 Chihiro Kaneko, RHP (5-11, 170) – Age 30

2014 NPB Statistics: 4-3, 1.25 ERA, 10 GS, 79.0 IP, 58 H, 19 BB, 102 K

Master of many pitches – very similar pitcher in terms of pitch selection and velocity to Hisashi Iwakuma, who was the 2^nd best pitcher in the American League in 2013 according to WAR. Fastball sits 88-89 and will touch 91 on a good day. Throws devastating slider at 85-86 and effective cutter at 83-85. Splitter is thrown below the strike zone for swinging Ks and sits 81-84. MLB hitters will not be able to handle split. Like many other Japanese pitchers, curveball is a very slow get-me-over pitch (67-69) with a big break. Currently the best pitcher in Japan. Leads Pacific League with 79 IP and 102 K. His ERA (1.25) is slightly better than Masahiro Tanaka’s (1.27) in 2013. Led Pacific League in K (200) and IP (223.1) in 2013. Upside is limited due to size, age and velocity, but could immediately contribute to MLB team in 2015. If he doesn’t hold up as MLB starter, pitching every 5 days, he’s a potentially great late inning reliever like Koji Uehara.

Video:

#4 Kenta Maeda, RHP (6-0, 179) – Age 26

2014 NPB Statistics: 5-3, 2.22 ERA, 10 GS, 69.0 IP, 54 H, 14 BB, 50 K

Fastball sits 89-92 and will touch 94. Strikeout pitch is tight slider/curveball mix at 80-83 – can throw pitch for both strike and two-strike chaser. Throws splitter at 83-86, but is third best pitch. Hesitation in delivery, common among Japanese pitchers, that adds deception.  Won Eiji Sawamura Award (best pitcher in NPB) in 2010 with 15-8 record, 2.21 ERA and 174 K in 215.2 IP. Led Central League in IP three times, ERA three times and Ks twice. Steady pitcher who has never had a bad season or suffered an injury.  Slight frame, but has added 25 pounds in recent years and should hold up as MLB starter.

Video:

#5 Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP (6-1, 198) – Age 24

2014 NPB Statistics: 7-2, 1.56 ERA, 11 GS, 80.2 IP, 65 H, 16 BB, 63 K

Fastball sits 88-91 and will touch 92. Throws two different curves: a tight hard one at 79-82 and a big slow one at 71-73. Very good control of both fastball and off-speed pitches. Not a lot of room for projection physically, he’s a bit thickly built and looks maxed out. After winning Rookie of the Year in 2013 (13-6, 3.12 ERA, 155 K), Sugano is the best pitcher in the Central League this season, leading the league in wins (7), ERA (1.56) and IP (80.2).

Video:

BONUS PITCHER:

Tomohiro Anraku, RHP (6-2, 187) – Age 17

Senior at Saibi High School

High school senior Tomohiro Anraku has received plenty of publicity, thanks to his legendary feats of durability (232 pitches in one game, 772 pitches in five games over a nine-day period) that were featured in a fantastic ESPN profile. He has hit 97 as a junior, but because he’s regularly abused as a pitcher, his velocity will fluctuate greatly. Some games, he sits 84-87 and touches 89. Other games, he sits 88-92 and will hit 95. He threw 94 on his 183^rd and final pitch of a Spring Koshien Tournament game in 2013. Anraku reaches back for extra velocity when guys are on base and will pace himself with no one on – something American pitchers don’t do, which has contributed greatly to arm injuries in this country. Has a big slow curve and wipeout slider to compliment his fastball. Needs to work on control, like just about every 17-year old pitcher on the planet. Great body – could end up being 6-4/220 when he’s done growing. Loads of potential and upside if he doesn’t get ruined (or hasn’t already been ruined) by his HS manager. It will be interesting to see where he lands in the 2014 NPB Draft or if he decides to become the first HS player to bypass NPB and sign a MLB contract.

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