Let's state the obvious - Toby Gerhart, Stanford's Heisman Trophy candidate senior running back, is white. And that in itself is a story because it is an anomaly. Sportswriters tip-toe around the subject calling Gerhart "old school" or a "throwback," but what they really want to say is "Holy shit, the best running back in the country is white and that's un-fucking-believable cause the last great white NFL running back was drafted almost 40 years ago (John Riggins)." They can't really say that for 2,453 various reasons, but I'll come out and say this - Toby Gerhart is a special talent that NFL draft analysts and sportswriters are underrating because of the color of his skin. To be fair, it has been a long, long time since a white running back has emerged as a pro football star. Mike Alstott ran for over 5,000 yards in the NFL, but he was a slow, muscle-bound fullback and never really was Tampa Bay's featured runner. And he was by far the most successful white running back in the NFL since Riggins won Super Bowl MVP honors in 1983. Well, after just watching Gerhart shred Notre Dame for 205 yards and three touchdowns, I'm not going to underrate him based on the the fact that white running backs have become extinct. Toby Gerhart is the best NFL running back prospect in college football.
Gerhart leads all of Division I-A (I refuse to say FBS) in rushing attempts (311), yards (1,736) and touchdowns (26). And it's not like he plays in a crap conference where his numbers are grossly inflated. In just his last four games against top-flight opponents Oregon, USC, California and Notre Dame, Gerhart has ran for 742 yards and 13 touchdowns. Including the Notre Dame game, I've watched Gerhart play several times this season and he's displayed remarkable balance, vision and speed for a 6-1, 235-pound back. And unlike some NFL big backs like Jamal Lewis and LenDale White, Gerhart *LOVES* to punish would-be tacklers. He is as physical a runner as I have seen this decade. Only Adrian Peterson, Brandon Jacobs and a young Fred Taylor (no one remembers how great he was) relish contact the way Gerhart does. Against Notre Dame, Gerhart flattened an Irish linebacker before dragging a safety another five yards to set up the game winning score. It was a thing of beauty. Linebackers and defensive backs bounce off Gerhart's gigantic thighs like superballs off concrete. So if Gerhart displays a rare combination of power, size, speed, vision and balance, why do most draft analysts rate Gerhart as a second or third round prospect? Let's check out ESPN.com's top running back prospects for the 2010 NFL draft -
1.) C.J. Spiller, Clemson (5-11, 195)
2.) Jahvid Best, California (5-10, 195)
3.) Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech (6-1, 235)
4.) Ryan Mathews, Fresno State (5-11, 220)
5.) Evan Royster, Penn State (6-1, 210)
6.) Joe McKnight, USC (6-0, 190)
7.) Montario Hardesty, Tennessee (6-1, 215)
8.) Toby Gerhart, Stanford (6-1, 235)
There is no way Gerhart ends up being the eight-best running back in this class. None. Get the thought that he'll be moved to fullback out of your head. It's as ridiculous as saying a talented black quarterback should be shifted to receiver just because there aren't any black NFL quarterbacks. Amazingly, NFL geniuses actually thought this way 30 years ago. Hopefully, any silly talk of playing Gerhart at fullback will be forever dismissed when he runs a 4.50 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine. Now let's take a closer look at Gerhart's competition for the best running back prospect in the 2010 NFL Draft.
Spiller, Best and McKnight all weigh under 200 pounds. Want to know how many starting running backs under 200 pounds there are in the NFL today? Zero. In fact, of the top 25 runners in NFL history (ranked by rushing yards), only Tony Dorsett and Warrick Dunn weighed in under 200 pounds. So the chances of those guys developing into star running backs is slim. More than likely, they will become versatile complimentary players like Reggie Bush or Leon Washington. Gerhart, meanwhile, is averaging 26 carries per game this season - the most in college football. Not exactly a durability concern.
I've seen lots of Evan Royster living here in Big Ten country, and while I like his vision and hands, he is slow. Mark my words, Gerhart will toast him at the NFL combine even though he's 25 pounds heavier. In fact, after Royster runs his 4.65, look for him to drop down to the third round. Hardesty was a medicore SEC back up until this year. I don't like backs like Hardesty with spotty college resumes. Only Larry Johnson became an NFL star after wetting the bed in college for three years before breaking out during his senior season. And 2002 Larry Johnson was a much better player than 2009 Montario Hardesty. Gerhart, on the other hand, topped 1,000 yards and scored 15 touchdowns last season. No fluke there.
That just leaves Mathews and Dwyer. Admittedly, I have never seen Mathews play. With 1491 yards and 14 touchdowns on 217 carries, he is having a great season for Fresno State. And standing 5-11, 220-pounds, Mathews is the ideal size for an NFL runner. But call me crazy if I have some serious doubts that he is a better player than Gerhart. Fresno's schedule is a joke compared to Stanford's. I'll be surprised if Mathews has the better pro career.
In my opinion, Dwyer is Gerhart's only real competition for the best running back prospect in the 2010 NFL Draft. At 235-pounds, Dwyer can really fly and he's a vital cog in Georgia Tech's vaunted triple option offense. So which 235-pound runner with 4.50 speed would you rather have? Gerhart or Dwyer? I'll take the guy playing in a pro-set offense over the high school one every day of the week. Advantage, Gerhart. Game, set, match, Gerhart. When the bowl season is over and the combine numbers are in, don't be shocked if Gerhart is a 1st Round Draft Pick. Sure, he might look different, but he's the best available talent. The numbers are right there in black and white.
Now for some obligatory Toby Gerhart highlights:
