Thursday, May 19, 2011

Phillies 2011 MLB Draft Preview


The 2011 MLB June Amateur Draft is less than three weeks away (June 6-8). Only hardcore baseball fans really care about the MLB Draft, mainly because it’s rare for draft picks to make an impact on a big league club for at least 2 or 3 years. Despite this, there is a serious following out there thirsting for draft tidbits and I’m a card-carrying member.


Philadelphia doesn’t own a first round pick in the 2011 Draft, but they do have the #39 overall selection in the supplemental “sandwich” round (consisting of compensation picks between the 1st and 2nd rounds handed out to teams for losing key free agents ).


Philly’s first round pick, number 33 overall, was given to the Texas Rangers for losing starting pitcher Cliff Lee. The Phillies were awarded the 39th pick in the sandwich round for losing outfielder Jayson Werth.


Here are five potential players Philadelphia will be looking at with their initial selection, the 39th pick in the draft:


C, Austin Hedges (6-1 / 185), JSerra Catholic HS (San Juan Capistrano, CA)

2011 Statistics: .366 AVG, 22 R, 30 H, 11 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 5 SB

SCOUTING REPORT: The top defensive catcher in the draft – high school or college. Has a reported 1.74 pop time to second base – anything under 2 seconds is good for a Major League catcher. Solid top-20 pick in any other draft, he will drop some because of this year’s pitching depth and his strong college commitment to UCLA, which could place him square in the Phillies’ lap. Bat needs to be developed. Ranked as the #32 overall draft prospect according to MLB.com.

SCOUTING VIDEO


C, Andrew Susac (6-1 / 205), Oregon State

2011 Statistics: .352 AVG, .493 OBP, .602 SLG, 32 GP, 30 R, 38 H, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 27 BB, 28 SO, 0 SB, 1 CS

SCOUTING REPORT: Drafted by Phillies in 16th round of 2009 MLB Draft, but couldn’t sign him away from his college commitment. Has a solid arm – threw out 4 of 7 base runners this year (63.6%). Above average power and plate discipline. Had mediocre freshman season at Oregon State (.260/.387/.365), but has rebounded this year and is the top hitter on one of the best teams in the nation. Missed a chunk of the season with an injured wrist, returned from injury and is hitting as well as ever. He’s a draft-eligible sophomore, so signing him may be tough, allowing him to drop a little in the draft. Ranked as the #36 overall draft prospect according to MLB.com.

SCOUTING VIDEO


OF, Brian Goodwin (6-1 / 190), Miami Dade College

2011 Statistics: .382 AVG, .492 OBP, 47 GP, 42 R, 60 H, 11 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 37 BB, 16 SB, 2 CS

SCOUTING REPORT: Played at North Carolina in 2010 and hit .291/.409/.511 with 7 HR, 63 RBI and 7 SB in 60 games. He transferred to Miami Dade junior college after facing an academic suspension at UNC. The tools are all there – above average speed, arm, bat and glove. If his power develops, he’s a legitimate five-tool player. Future centerfielder and leadoff batter. Ranked as the #37 overall draft prospect according to MLB.com.

SCOUTING VIDEO


OF, Derek Fisher (6-3 / 218), Cedar Crest HS (Lebanon, PA) ***PICTURED ABOVE***

2011 Statistics: .484 AVG, 27 R, 31 H, 3 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 28 RBI, 2 SB

SCOUTING REPORT: Thick, football-build in the mold of Angels' top-prospect Mike Trout. Can run a little and has good power and bat speed. Destined for leftfield. Undervalued due to limited games and level of competition in the East Coast, allowing him to potentially fall to the Phillies in the sandwich round even though he’s a solid first-round talent. The Phillies aren't scared to take a local high school star - they selected lefthander Jesse Biddle (Germantown Friends HS) with their first round pick in 2010. Has a funny little hitch in his swing, but loft comes easy and he should develop well above average power. Committed to attend Virginia. Ranked as the #42 overall draft prospect according to MLB.com.

SCOUTING VIDEO


RHP, Tyler Beede (6-4 / 200), Lawrence Academy (Groton, MA)

2011 Statistics: 7-0, 0.32 ERA, 8 GP, 44 IP, 8 H, 6 BB, 89 K

SCOUTING REPORT: Solid build with plenty of room to fill out. The high school righthander sits at 90-93 mph with a sharp, two-plane slervy breaking pitch. Has above average command and great composure on the mound. Solid commitment to Vanderbilt will make him a tough sign. Could easily drop to Phillies due to college commitment, but they will have to open the purse strings to sign him. Has tons of room for projection. Ranked as the #50 overall draft prospect according to MLB.com.

SCOUTING VIDEO

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

The Curious Case of Clifton Phifer Lee


The Phillies' Cliff Lee struck out 16 batters in his last start and currently leads the National League with 60 strikeouts. And with all his recent success (2008 AL CY Award, postseason dominance), that seams like par for the course. The thing is, it isn't. This kind of dominance is a recent phenomenon. There is a curious thing about Lee's career - like the famous literary character Benjamin Button, he seems to be getting younger with age.

Check out these year-by-year numbers of Lee's average fastball velocity since he made his MLB debut as a 23-year old in 2002:

Year (Avg FBv) Age
2002 (87.2) 23
2003 (88.8) 24
2004 (89.4) 25
2005 (89.3) 26
2006 (89.0) 27
2007 (89.0) 28
2008 (90.5) 29
2009 (91.1) 30
2010 (91.3) 31
2011 (91.6) 32

Most pitchers, even guys in their 20's, tend to gradually lose velocity. This is a normal trend - virtually all pitchers progressively lose a little gas as they get older. Even the great Felix Hernandez, just 25 years old, has lost some of the heat on his fastball. Here are King Felix's yearly average fastball velocity numbers:

Year (Avg FBv) Age
2005 (95.8) 19
2006 (95.2) 20
2007 (95.6) 21
2008 (94.6) 22
2009 (94.0) 23
2010 (94.1) 24
2011 (93.5) 25

It's no coincidence that Lee became a dominant pitcher in 2008, when his average fastball velocity broke 90 mph for the first time in his career. And surprisingly, his velocity increase hasn't stopped yet. When he has the good stuff, Lee is blowing away batters with 95 mph missiles from the left side. His average fastball is a career high 91.6 this season and it's the fourth consecutive year he's set a personal high in fastball velocity. Cliff Lee is actually getting better with age. And that's remarkable, because I can't find any other pitcher in the past 10 years (when FanGraphs started tracking velocity) who has done the same. In that way, Lee is completely atypical as a pitcher. He has more in common with a bottle of wine.