Friday, December 18, 2009

2009 College Football Consensus All-America Team


On December 15, The Sporting News and Associated Press announced their 2009 College Football All-America teams - the final two organizations of the five recognized by the NCAA to do so. Other organizations' All-America teams recognized by the NCAA include the Football Writers Association of America, Walter Camp Foundation and American Football Coaches Association.

Once again, I have yet to see a press release from the NCAA compiling these five separate teams to form the Consensus All-America team. Why doesn't anyone do this? It would take like 15 minutes. It's super easy. The Consensus All-America team consists of 25 spots. A quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, a tight end, five offensive linemen, four defensive linemen, three linebackers, four defensive backs, a placekicker, a punter and an all-purpose player/kick returner. To be on the consensus team, you have to be named to at least three out of the five All-America teams recognized by the NCAA. Players named to all five teams are "Unanimous" All-America selections. If a position fails to garner at least three nominations for the same individual, the player (or players) named to the most All-America teams is on the consensus squad.

Anyway, for the second consecutive year, I've put the team together myself. Here is your 2009 College Football Consensus All-America Team (Unanimous Selection**) -

Quarterback:
Colt McCoy, Senior, Texas**

Running Back:
Toby Gerhart, Senior, Stanford**
Mark Ingram, Sophomore, Alabama**

Wide Receiver:
Golden Tate, Junior, Notre Dame**
Jordan Shipley, Senior, Texas

Tight End:
Aaron Hernandez, Junior, Florida & Dennis Pitta, Senior, BYU (TIED)

Offensive Line:
Russell Okung, Senior, Oklahoma State**
Mike Johnson, Senior, Alabama
Trent Williams, Senior, Oklahoma
Mike Iupati, Senior, Idaho
Maurkice Pouncey, Senior, Florida

Defensive Line:
Ndamukong Suh, Senior, Nebraska** (PICTURED ABOVE)
Jerry Hughes, Senior, TCU**
Terrence Cody, Senior, Alabama
Gerald McCoy, Junior, Oklahoma

Linebacker:
Rolando McClain, Junior, Alabama**
Greg Jones, Junior, Michigan State
Brandon Spikes, Senior, Florida & Eric Norwood, Senior, South Carolina (TIED)

Defensive Back:
Eric Berry, Junior, Tennessee**
Joe Haden, Junior, Florida**
Earl Thomas, Sophomore, Texas
Javier Arenas, Senior, Alabama

Placekicker:
Kai Forbath, Junior, UCLA

Punter:
Drew Butler, Sophomore, Georgia**

All-Purpose/Kick Returner:
C.J. Spiller, Senior, Clemson**

Final Notes: Aaron Hernandez and Dennis Pitta tied each other with two All-America nominations at tight end. Ditto for Brandon Spikes and Eric Norwood at linebacker.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

And The Heisman Goes To...


The Heisman Trophy has to be the single most celebrated award in sports. Is there another award that even comes close? NFL MVP? AL or NL MVP? NBA MVP? Not so much. All important and celebrated awards, but when Larry Bird signs his autograph, I'll bet he doesn't include "84-86 MVP." As former PR Manager at the College Football Hall of Fame, I can tell you for certain that every Heisman winner from Paul Hornung to Desmond Howard signs their name with "Heisman" following the year they won. Maybe it's because the award has been given out since 1935. Maybe it's the unmistakable look of the award, made out of cast iron bronze, weighing 25 pounds and modeled after a player striking an especially powerful pose. Whatever the reason, even non-sports fans know what the Heisman Trophy is. This year's recipient will have their name forever linked to the bronze statue on December 12 and here is a breakdown of my ballot (if I had a vote) and who I think will actually win the Heisman.

Voting for the Heisman is pretty simple. You select players for first, second and third place on you ballot and they receive 3 points for a first place vote, 2 for a second and 1 for a third. A total of 926 voters cast their Heisman ballot this year, 55 former Heisman winners, 870 sportswriters and 1 fan vote. The Heisman Trophy is supposed to be awarded to the most outstanding player in college football. Not the best player on the number 1 team in the country, not the the senior quarterback with the best overall career, not the virgin quarterback who reads bible verses to prisoners on death row, just THE MOST OUTSTANDING PLAYER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL. Period. Too many sportswriters confuse the Heisman with the NFL MVP Award - or worse, the Nobel Peace Prize. It is neither. This idiocy has led to Gino Torretta winning over Marshall Faulk and Jason White being named over Larry Fitzgerald. Those selections were travesties at the time and look even worse in hindsight. With all that in mind, let's take a look at what my ballot would have looked like:

1.) Toby Gerhart (Senior), Running Back, Stanford
Key Statistics: 311 carries for 1,736 yards and 26 touchdowns; 10 receptions for 149 yards; 1/1 passing for 18 yards and a touchdown
Simply put, Gerhart was the most outstanding player in college football this year. He was also the most consistent and at his best against top competition. Gerhart ran for over 110 yards in 10 of 12 games and topped 200 yards 3 times. And Stanford did not play a cupcake schedule, as 6 of their 12 opponents finished with a .500 record or better. Against top competition Oregon, USC, California and Notre Dame to close out the season, Gerhard averaged 186 yards rushing and 3.3 touchdowns. He led all of Division I-A football (FBS) in rushing yards and touchdowns. But enough with the overwhelming statistics. The Great White Hope was a pleasure to watch all season. Against Notre Dame, Gerhart straight wore out the Irish defenders, crashing into linebackers with the impact of a car collision and flattening defensive backs with hits that literally made you get up out of your seat. The guy is just a beast and I can't wait to watch him on Sundays. Think Mike Alstott with 4.50 speed and cutback ability. Better yet, get over the pigment and he reminds me of Brandon Jacobs at his best. That's Toby Gerhart - the most outstanding player in college football.

2.) Ndamukong Suh (Senior) Defensive Tackle, Nebraska
Key Statistics: 82 tackles, 12 sacks, 10 passes broken up, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble
Suh is the best NFL prospect in college football and narrowly trailed Gerhart for the most outstanding player in college football by the slightest of margins. He was at his best in the Big 12 Championship Game against Texas, sacking bible-belt hero Colt McCoy 4 1/2 times and almost single-handedly leading Nebraska to a shocking upset. His performance that game left me in awe. I grew up watching the Eagles and looking at Suh take Texas' gigantic lineman and literally shove them into the quarterback made instantly me think about one player - Reggie White. Not since The Minister of Defense have I ever witnessed a defensive lineman rag-doll 300 pound men play after play. His 82 total stops at defensive tackle are ridiculous. As a comparison, Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy, who will be a top 5 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, has 31 tackles on the season. And he legitimately had a great year. Suh is just THAT good. I would have placed him first, but prior to the Texas game, he had 7.5 sacks, 1 interception and 1 forced fumble in 12 games. Great production from a lineman, just not quite enough game-changing plays to overtake Gerhart. Barely.

3.) C.J.Spiller (Senior) Running Back, Clemson
Key Statistics: 201 carries for 1,145 yards and 11 touchdowns, 33 receptions for 445 yards and 4 touchdowns, 8 punt returns for 210 yards and 1 touchdown, 21 kickoff returns for 708 yards and 4 touchdowns, 2/1 passing for 17 yards and a touchdown
Clemson's do-everything back was the most spectacular player in college football, just not quite the best. Spiller was the only player this season to score a touchdown via rush, reception, punt return, kickoff return and pass. In 9 out of 13 games, Spiller either rushed for 100 yards, had 100 yards receiving or scored a touchdown on a kick return. He was electric, capable of running 90 yards in a flash on any given play. The only knock against him is consistency. This is what his total yards-from-scrimmage numbers looked like from game to game: 12, 156, 79, 191, 79, 112, 185, 27, 232, 145, 97, 37, 238. As you can see, it was quite the roller-coaster ride. Spectacular at his peak, Spiller had a few underwhelming games, which is why I rank him third.

Now that I've given my 2-cents, here's the real question - who will actually win this year's Heisman Trophy? I'm not entirely sure. Thanks to a little research on the interwebs, 144 of 926 ballots have been posted by sportswriters around the country. That's 15.55% of all the Heisman ballots, and while that percentage will likely indicate a presidential winner most of the time, this year's Heisman Trophy is still up for grabs. Here are the leading vote-getters in this sample size (3 points for 1st place vote, 2 points for second, 1 point for third):

1.) Mark Ingram, Running Back, Alabama (214 points)
2.) Ndamukong Suh, Defensive Tackle, Nebraska (203 points)
3.) Toby Gerhart, Running Back, Stanford (199 points)
4.) Colt McCoy, Quarterback, Texas (136 points)
5.) Tim Tebow, Quarterback, Florida (43 points)

It's pretty obvious that it's a three-man race between Ingram, Suh and Gerhart. Thank goodness a senior quarterback with no NFL prospects on a Top 5 team won't be handed the Heisman even though there are a dozen better options. And although I think Gerhart had the best season, I'd love to see Suh win the Heisman. He would be the first ever defensive-only player to capture the award (remember, Charles Woodson ran back kicks and was the number 3 wide receiver for Michigan in 1997). Unfortunately, it looks like Ingram will win. Although he's had a great year and is a great player, he's just not the most outstanding player in college football. Heck, he's not even the best running back on his own team. Alabama true freshman Trent Richardson is a future top-10 pick and will likely take away quite a few carries from Ingram next season. Similar to Auburn when they had both Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown, both Ingram and Richardson are potential first round picks, but Richardson will end up being drafted higher and will have the better NFL career. Who knows, maybe Gerhart or Suh will overcome Ingram's small lead and the most outstanding player in college football will capture sports' most coveted award. History indicates they won't.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

The Great White Hope


Let's state the obvious - Toby Gerhart, Stanford's Heisman Trophy candidate senior running back, is white. And that in itself is a story because it is an anomaly. Sportswriters tip-toe around the subject calling Gerhart "old school" or a "throwback," but what they really want to say is "Holy shit, the best running back in the country is white and that's un-fucking-believable cause the last great white NFL running back was drafted almost 40 years ago (John Riggins)." They can't really say that for 2,453 various reasons, but I'll come out and say this - Toby Gerhart is a special talent that NFL draft analysts and sportswriters are underrating because of the color of his skin. To be fair, it has been a long, long time since a white running back has emerged as a pro football star. Mike Alstott ran for over 5,000 yards in the NFL, but he was a slow, muscle-bound fullback and never really was Tampa Bay's featured runner. And he was by far the most successful white running back in the NFL since Riggins won Super Bowl MVP honors in 1983. Well, after just watching Gerhart shred Notre Dame for 205 yards and three touchdowns, I'm not going to underrate him based on the the fact that white running backs have become extinct. Toby Gerhart is the best NFL running back prospect in college football.

Gerhart leads all of Division I-A (I refuse to say FBS) in rushing attempts (311), yards (1,736) and touchdowns (26). And it's not like he plays in a crap conference where his numbers are grossly inflated. In just his last four games against top-flight opponents Oregon, USC, California and Notre Dame, Gerhart has ran for 742 yards and 13 touchdowns. Including the Notre Dame game, I've watched Gerhart play several times this season and he's displayed remarkable balance, vision and speed for a 6-1, 235-pound back. And unlike some NFL big backs like Jamal Lewis and LenDale White, Gerhart *LOVES* to punish would-be tacklers. He is as physical a runner as I have seen this decade. Only Adrian Peterson, Brandon Jacobs and a young Fred Taylor (no one remembers how great he was) relish contact the way Gerhart does. Against Notre Dame, Gerhart flattened an Irish linebacker before dragging a safety another five yards to set up the game winning score. It was a thing of beauty. Linebackers and defensive backs bounce off Gerhart's gigantic thighs like superballs off concrete. So if Gerhart displays a rare combination of power, size, speed, vision and balance, why do most draft analysts rate Gerhart as a second or third round prospect? Let's check out ESPN.com's top running back prospects for the 2010 NFL draft -

1.) C.J. Spiller, Clemson (5-11, 195)
2.) Jahvid Best, California (5-10, 195)
3.) Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech (6-1, 235)
4.) Ryan Mathews, Fresno State (5-11, 220)
5.) Evan Royster, Penn State (6-1, 210)
6.) Joe McKnight, USC (6-0, 190)
7.) Montario Hardesty, Tennessee (6-1, 215)
8.) Toby Gerhart, Stanford (6-1, 235)

There is no way Gerhart ends up being the eight-best running back in this class. None. Get the thought that he'll be moved to fullback out of your head. It's as ridiculous as saying a talented black quarterback should be shifted to receiver just because there aren't any black NFL quarterbacks. Amazingly, NFL geniuses actually thought this way 30 years ago. Hopefully, any silly talk of playing Gerhart at fullback will be forever dismissed when he runs a 4.50 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine. Now let's take a closer look at Gerhart's competition for the best running back prospect in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Spiller, Best and McKnight all weigh under 200 pounds. Want to know how many starting running backs under 200 pounds there are in the NFL today? Zero. In fact, of the top 25 runners in NFL history (ranked by rushing yards), only Tony Dorsett and Warrick Dunn weighed in under 200 pounds. So the chances of those guys developing into star running backs is slim. More than likely, they will become versatile complimentary players like Reggie Bush or Leon Washington. Gerhart, meanwhile, is averaging 26 carries per game this season - the most in college football. Not exactly a durability concern.

I've seen lots of Evan Royster living here in Big Ten country, and while I like his vision and hands, he is slow. Mark my words, Gerhart will toast him at the NFL combine even though he's 25 pounds heavier. In fact, after Royster runs his 4.65, look for him to drop down to the third round. Hardesty was a medicore SEC back up until this year. I don't like backs like Hardesty with spotty college resumes. Only Larry Johnson became an NFL star after wetting the bed in college for three years before breaking out during his senior season. And 2002 Larry Johnson was a much better player than 2009 Montario Hardesty. Gerhart, on the other hand, topped 1,000 yards and scored 15 touchdowns last season. No fluke there.

That just leaves Mathews and Dwyer. Admittedly, I have never seen Mathews play. With 1491 yards and 14 touchdowns on 217 carries, he is having a great season for Fresno State. And standing 5-11, 220-pounds, Mathews is the ideal size for an NFL runner. But call me crazy if I have some serious doubts that he is a better player than Gerhart. Fresno's schedule is a joke compared to Stanford's. I'll be surprised if Mathews has the better pro career.

In my opinion, Dwyer is Gerhart's only real competition for the best running back prospect in the 2010 NFL Draft. At 235-pounds, Dwyer can really fly and he's a vital cog in Georgia Tech's vaunted triple option offense. So which 235-pound runner with 4.50 speed would you rather have? Gerhart or Dwyer? I'll take the guy playing in a pro-set offense over the high school one every day of the week. Advantage, Gerhart. Game, set, match, Gerhart. When the bowl season is over and the combine numbers are in, don't be shocked if Gerhart is a 1st Round Draft Pick. Sure, he might look different, but he's the best available talent. The numbers are right there in black and white.

Now for some obligatory Toby Gerhart highlights:

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Will The Real Cliff Lee Please Stand Up?


A day after the Phillies decimated the LA Dodgers 10-4 in an anti-climatic NLCS clinching win to propel them to their second consecutive World Series, I've been busy trading dozens of barbs with friends who are die-hard Yankee fans in anticipation of a New York-Philly Series. Only the following text from my college roommate actually made me think:

ROOMIE: Congrats David. Hopefully the yanks handle business tonight. I'm looking forward to exposing lee as the nl fraud he is.

ME: Yeah. 22-3 in the al last yr totally never happened.

ROOMIE: How did he do all years other than that? First half of this year? Just sayin...

You see, Yankee fans think they have one huge (and I mean HUGE) advantage over the Phils in 6-7, 290-pound ace CC Sabathia. To put it more distinctly, they believe the Yankees have a #1 starter and the Phillies do not. With Cole Hamels turning in three totally lackluster starts this postseason after a very average regular season, is Cliff Lee a legitimate #1 starter for the Phightins? Is he the guy who won the 2008 AL Cy Young Award and is currently 2-0 in three postseason starts with a 0.74 ERA in 24 1/3 innings or is he really the pitcher who was so poor in 2007 that he had to be sent down to the minor leagues and is actually just a mediocre AL starter thriving in an inferior league?

First off, let's dismiss the notion that Lee was just an average pitcher in the AL this year before his trade to Philadelphia. Sure his record was just 7-9 in 22 starts, but won-loss record is just about the worst statistical measure out there (aside from only the ridiculous save statistic) in determining a pitchers true worth. At the time of the trade, Lee led the AL with 152 innings pitched and sported a 3.14 ERA - better than Sabathia's 3.37 mark for the season. So now that that silliness can be disregarded, what happened to Lee in 2007 and is the pitcher from 2008-2009 the real deal? As always, numbers don't lie.

Going into 2007, Lee was a really good pitcher. Maybe not #1 caliber, but a solid #2-type starter. In 2005 and 2006, Lee averaged a 16-8 record with a 4.09 ERA over 201 innings pitched. He averaged 9.3 hits, 2.4 walks and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Really solid numbers across the board, especially from a lefthander. Then 2007. After a 5-8, 6.29 ERA year, the Indians left Lee off their postseason roster. He even was demoted to the minors. What the hell happened? Well......not much actually.

In 2007, Lee gave up just one extra hit and one extra walk per game compared to his previous two seasons. This would naturally lead to him having a worse year, but not the epic fail he endured that season. Basically, he was unlucky and one would expect a return to his previous form as a quality lefthanded starter. Now here's the real mystery - how did Lee bounce back to become not only a good starter, but a legitimately great, #1 pitcher?

Lets take a look at Lee's pitching arsenal from 2007 and 2009, courtesy of FanGraphs:

2007: Fastball (89.0 avg velocity, 68.4% of pitches) Slider (79.0 avg velocity, 4.0% of pitches) Cutter (85.3 avg velocity, 4.9% of pitches) Curveball (75.3 avg velocity, 6.8% of pitches) Changeup (82.1 avg velocity, 15.8 % of pitches)

2009: Fastball (91.1 avg velocity, 61.4% of pitches) Slider (81.2 avg velocity, 1.2% of pitches) Cutter (85.9 avg velocity, 12.4% of pitches) Curveball (75.9 avg velocity, 8.3% of pitches) Changeup (84.0 avg velocity, 16.6 % of pitches)

The first difference that jumps out at you is the velocity increase. For his entire career, Lee's fastball averaged around 89 mph. Then, out of nowhere, it spiked to 90.5 in 2008 and 91.1 this year. I really don't have an explanation for the increase in velocity...maybe his form is better, maybe his arm slot has changed, maybe he's on drugs. No idea. But what I do know is that the difference between averaging 91 mph vs 89 mph is enormous. Against the Dodgers in his last start, Lee was pumping 93 and 94 mph fastballs when he needed them to put away batters. He stuck out 10 hitters in eight dominating innings. If he's topping out at 90 or 91 instead of 94, those strikeouts turn into foul balls or balls in play.

The second thing that I notice is the drastic increase in how many cutters Lee throws. In 2007, only 4.9% of his pitches were cutters. This year that figure was 12.4% and anyone who sees Lee pitch live knows he gives batters fits with that sweeping and diving cutter - especially lefthanded hitters. He's basically scraped his slider in favor of the cut fastball and the results are remarkable. Lee gave up 9.5 hits, 0.7 homeruns, 1.7 walks and struck out 7.0 batters per nine innings this year. Those figures are markedly down from the 10.4 hits, 1.6 homeruns and 3.3 walks allowed per game in 2007. The increased command, lower homerun totals and increased velocity have transformed Lee into a world-beater.

It's true that CC Sabathia is a fantastic pitcher and a dynamic force who has been an absolute horse for the Yankees - especially this postseason. And maybe the defending World (Fucking) Champions will struggle to contain the Yankees lineup and succum to their $200 million All-Star Juggernaut of a roster. But do not underestimate the talent and tenacity of this Phillies team. Maybe they have a shaky bullpen. Maybe they live and die with the homerun. But one thing they do have is an ace.

Friday, August 14, 2009

VICK!


I received a text from my cousin tonight at 8:49pm that simply said "VICK!" and I immediately knew....My Philadelphia Eagles had just signed Michael Vick - an athlete who was once the greatest one-man show I have ever seen.

Now, I really don't remember watching Bo Jackson. Oh, I remember the commercials and his days as a DH with the White Sox, but I just didn't pay attention to sports outside of Philly in the late 80's when Bo was scaling walls in Kansas City and running over linebackers in Los Angeles, so maybe he was a more spectacular athlete, but from 2002-2006 Mike Vick was SICK.

Some highlights:



When Mike was doing his thing in the Dirty, Dirty South, I was stuck in Indiana, watching my beloved Eagles at the local Buffalo Wild Wings. Every Sunday, I'd show up well before gametime so I could pick a spot in front of two TV's and instruct the waitress to turn the channel to my Eagles, of course, on one monitor and the Falcons game on the other. And you know what? I was probably slightly more fascinated in the Falcons game. It's just that I knew every time I would watch the Falcons, there was a phenomenal chance I was going to see something I had never witnessed before. Vick was faster than linebackers, stronger than defensive backs and could juke like Barry Sanders. And good God did he have a golden left arm. He could throw a football through a brick wall and no point on the football field was out of his reach. Vick was special, he was magic - the kind of player that you could not take yours eyes off because you didn't want to miss a chance to see something truly great.

Now, Vick is probably not the same player. I don't doubt that his arm is as strong as ever, but his speed, athleticism and awareness on the football field might never return after a two year sabbatical from the game thanks to his much-publicized dog fighting ring. But you never know. If he could show flashes of his old talent in special Vick-tailored packages for 5-8 snaps per game, then he is well-worth the 1.6 million dollar gamble the Eagles have made. I don't doubt that half of the fanatical dog-loving fans in Philly will cry foul and scream and pout until their recyclable panties are in a bunch, but I can guarantee you the other half are ecstatic about the possibilities the Eagles now have on offense. Speed kills, and an offense already loaded with burners Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson at wideout and Mcnabb and Westbrook in the backfield have just added a quarterback who could run a 4.30 40-yard dash and has more moves than any running back currently in the league. Can you imagine the possibilities in a redzone offense with Vick in the shotgun behind the biggest offensive line in pro football and two sub-4.4 receivers lined up wide with Westbrook in the slot? I'll bet you Andy Reid can.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Eagles Set For Super Bowl Run After Incredible Draft


For the first time in Andy Reid's 10-year tenure, I have walked away from an Eagles NFL Draft day speechless. I mean, WOW. Through the draft, the Birds acquired a franchise left tackle (Jason Peters) in exchange for the 28th overall pick, a top-10 wide receiver talent with the 19th overall pick (Jeremy Maclin), a Brian Westbrook clone with the 53rd overall pick (LeSean McCoy) and absolutely stole Cornelius Ingram in the 5th round. Ingram is a pass-catching speed tight end who would have easily been a second or late first round pick had he not been injured this past season. Now healthy, Ingram ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at the combine and his hands are a thing of beauty. He's the perfect replacement (and an upgrade) for L.J. Smith.

In addition, the Eagles fleeced cornerback Ellis Hobbs from the New England Patriots for a couple 5th round picks. Hobbs, only 26, will make a great nickel back assuming Sheldon Brown doesn't hold out for a new contract, and his 27.7-yard average and three career touchdowns on kickoff returns are sorely needed assuming Quintin Demps is promoted to starting free safety. Just two years ago, the Eagles had the worst kick/punt return unit in the NFL. In 2009, the Birds will trot DeSean Jackson, Ellis Hobbs and Jeremy Maclin out for return duties. They could conceivably win two games on kick returns alone.

What really impressed me about the Birds Draft is the incredible value the Eagles acquired with each of their picks. Maclin is a rare, rare talent. It's baffling that he lasted until the 19th pick and Reid was incredibly smart to realize this and trade up two spots to select him. I know, I know, he IS somewhat similar to DeSean Jackson. But other than the fact that both of them are best suited for the "X" receiver position, they are much different. Maclin is just over 6-feet tall - a good 2 1/2 inches taller than Jackson - and a muscular 198 pounds, or 20 pounds heavier than DeSean. His burst is incredible, few players are faster in the first 10 yards than Maclin. Now, the Eagles can line both Jackson and Maclin wide and bring Westbrook in motion on the opposite side with a tight end and fullback, creating an absolute nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. And you just KNOW Reid is going to kill teams with the bubble screen. They all used to go to Westbrook. This season, watch McNabb fake a hand-off to Westbrook and dump screens to Maclin. God help teams that don't see this coming. No one in the NFL not named Reggie Bush is better at weaving through blockers than Jeremy Maclin.

Which brings me to my next point - the Eagles now have the best offensive line they have ever had in the Andy Reid era. Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas got old last year. With the addition of Jason Peters, who is poised to have a bounce-back year after ONLY being named to the Pro Bowl team after an All-Pro season in 2007, the Birds are set. You have the Andrews brothers on the right side. Hopefully, with his older brother playing next to him, Shaun Andrews will overcome his depression issues and once again reclaim his rightful status as the best and most dominant guard in all of football. His brother Stacy is a mauler in the running game and perfectly suited for right tackle. Peters is the most gifted left tackle in all of football. No left tackle - not Walter Jones, or Joe Thomas, or Jake Long or any player in the 2009 Draft - is as fast and strong as Jason Peters. The Eagles paid him accordingly, so look for Peters to show up ready to kill people. Reid has always sought to have the best line in the game and this year, assuming Shaun Andrews is physically and mentally healthy, he just might have it.

Coming off a heart-breaking loss in the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles are once again poised for yet another Super Bowl run in 2009. You never really know what's going to happen. Donovan McNabb must stay healthy again. The defense has to replace their heart and soul with the loss of Brian Dawkins to free agency. But the Eagles have a lot less questions after the draft. They now have a franchise left tackle, a franchise receiver, a pass-catching tight end, a nickelback, several options at kick returner and an explosive running back to spell Westbrook during his annual bouts of bumps and bruises. I'm not saying the Eagles are a lock for the Super Bowl, but through the 2009 NFL Draft, they have placed themselves among the top contenders in the game.

For a detailed look at the Top 100 draft picks in the 2009 NFL Draft, take a look at my annual spreadsheet here.

Monday, February 9, 2009

I Sort of Have a Thing For Guys That Throw Hard


When I was a kid, my best friend and I would compete every day against my brother and cousin in "two-on-two" baseball. Impossible you say? False. Not when you limit the field to anything hit to the left of the flag pole. Plus, with pitcher's poison in play, ground balls easily turned into outs if you could throw them back to the pitcher before the runner tagged the seesaw duck ride that served as first base. If you hit the ball into Todd Landis' backyard or into the basketball courts past centerfield, it was a home run. Anything hit into the forest past the infield was an automatic double.

Anyway, I was always the power pitcher in these games. I threw the hardest and used to pretend that I was Roger Clemens, blowing smoke past Cal Ripken (my brother) and John Kruk (cousin). Since then, I've always followed the careers of power pitchers. Clemens, Kerry Wood and Curt Schilling were my favorites. Even today, I'll drop whatever I was scheduled to do if I have the opportunity to watch Josh Beckett or Tim Lincecum pitch.

With that in mind, I picked up a copy of The 2009 Bill James Handbook and found some phenomenal statistics that just don't exist anywhere else on the web or in print. Included in this statistical treasure trove is a list of the top ten starting pitchers and relievers with the highest average fastballs in both the National and American League. This, as you might imagine, made me incredibly happy. Here's the list, and I highly recommend picking up a copy of the book if you are a stat-freak and/or fantasy baseball fanatic -

2008 NL Starting Pitchers (Minimum 162 IP)
Rank, Pitcher (AVG Fastball)
1.) Ubaldo Jimenez (94.9)
2.) Tim Lincecum (94.1)
3.) Edinson Volquez (93.6)
4.) Johnny Cueto (93.4)
5.) Mike Pelfrey (92.7)
6.) Roy Oswalt (92.6)
7.) Ben Sheets (92.6)
8.) Manny Parra (92.4)
9.) Matt Cain (92.4)
10.) Todd Wellenmeyer (92.3)

2008 AL Starting Pitchers (Minimum 162 IP)
Rank, Pitcher (AVG Fastball)
1.) Felix Hernandez (94.6)
2.) Ervin Santana (94.4)
3.) Josh Beckett (94.3)
4.) A.J. Burnett (94.3)
5.) Edwin Jackson (93.9)
6.) Justin Verlander (93.6)
7.) Zach Greinke (93.3)
8.) Jeremy Guthrie (93.2)
9.) Matt Garza (93.2)
10.) Roy Halladay (92.7)

2008 NL Relief Pitchers (Minimum 50 IP)
Rank, Pitcher (AVG Fastball)
1.) Matt Lindstrom (96.9)
2.) Jonathan Broxton (96.3)
3.) Brian Wilson (95.8)
4.) Jose Valverde (95.5)
5.) Joel Hanrahan (95.2)
6.) Tony Pena (95.1)
7.) Jesus Colome (94.9)
8.) Kerry Wood (94.8)
9.) Francisco Cordero (94.6)
10.) Jeremy Affeldt (94.6)

2008 AL Relief Pitchers (Minimum 50 IP)
Rank, Pitcher (AVG Fastball)
1.) Manny Delcarmen (95.5)
2.) Matt Thornton (95.3)
3.) Jonathan Papelbon (95.3)
4.) Kyle Farnsworth (94.9)
5.) Jose Veras (94.9)
6.) Frank Francisco (94.7)
7.) Grant Balfour (94.6)
8.) Dennis Sarfate (94.6)
9.) Santiago Casilla (94.4)
10.) Mark Lowe (94.3)

A few quick notes:

It should go without saying that relievers have higher average fastballs because they don't have to pace themselves for 6-9 innings. If Josh Beckett was closing instead of starting, he'd average around 96-97 MPH instead of 94. Also, it's more telling to see who's not on this list than who is. The absence of Carlos Zambrano, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan and Scott Kazmir validate what is already evident in their declining strikeouts/nine innings numbers - that they have lost some velocity on their once potent fastballs. This information is key when drafting your fantasy baseball team and it's the kind of stuff that seam-heads like me absolutely eat up.

Monday, January 5, 2009

Parting Is Such Sweet Sorrow



FoxSports reported some devastatingly predictable news this afternoon - Pat Burrell has signed a two-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays for $16 million.

This was inevitable when the Phils signed Raul Ibanez last month, but it officially closes the chapter on one of the most polarizing figures in recent Philadelphia sports history. Selected with the first-overall draft pick in 1998, Burrell went from uber-prospect in 2000 to budding superstar in 2002 to washed up in 2003 to comeback kid in 2005 before ending his career in Philly as a World Champion in 2008. In nine seasons, Burrell accumulated 251 homeruns, 827 RBI and a 119 OPS+ in 1306 games.

Burrell never won a batting title. In fact, his career average is just .257. He never won a homerun crown or an MVP, but for all of those idiot Phillies "fans" who booed Burrell when he stepped up to bat, the guy averaged 28 homeruns, 92 RBI and 87 walks in 145 games over his nine-year career. Was he a Hall of Famer? No. Was he a key player in the middle of a potent lineup, without whom the Phillies would never have won the World Series? Yes.

As I previously wrote in great detail, it is ludicrous that the Phillies passed on Burrell to sign an inferior, older and more expensive player (Ibanez). Apparently, I am not alone in this opinion. ESPN lead baseball analyst Keith Law (a former assistant GM for the Toronto Blue Jays) wrote the following in his blog today:

"Compare this to the deal the Phillies, who let Burrell walk without arbitration, gave Raul Ibanez: one extra year at a marginal cost of $14 million as well as the loss of their first round draft pick, for a player four years older and worse defensively."

Ouch. 

Fellow ESPN writer Rob Neyer also LOVES THIS MOVE FOR THE RAYS.

With the acquisition of Burrell, Tampa Bay's lineup becomes quite the murders row. How many RBI will Burrell rack up with Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena hitting in front of him? 120? 130? Burrell will become Tampa's regular DH, meaning he will no longer be pulled from games for defensive purposes and his counting numbers should increase by 10% across the board. In other words, pick him up in your fantasy draft.

On a personal note, I'd like to extend a big thank you to "Pat the Bat" for everything he's done for my favorite team over the past nine years. Thank you for hitting some truly breathtaking homeruns, including two bombs in the NLDS clincher over Milwaukee. Thank you for your prodigious man-whore conquests. Thank you for hitting a 400-foot double in your last at-bat in a Phillies uniform in Game 5 of the World Series - which proved to be the game-winning run that captured the Phillies only World Series Championship in my lifetime. Most importantly, thank you for making me stop whatever I was doing to watch you hit every time you stepped to the plate. Maybe you would strike out. Maybe you would hit one out. Either way, I always paid attention. Despite his perceived reputation, Burrell will be sorely missed by more Phillies fans than most people know. He was our prodigal son. I know I'll be paying close attention to Tampa Bay this season.