Wednesday, September 18, 2013

QB Options for Chip Kelly & Philadelphia Eagles in the 2014 NFL Draft


As amazing as Mike Vick is (clearly the best QB in Eagles history...maybe the greatest player of all-time ...OK maybe I have a serious homer bias with #7), he’s 33, has a 1-year contract and will need to be replaced eventually. Here’s a look at some great fits at quarterback for Chip Kelly and the Eagles in the 2014 NFL Draft:

Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville (6-3, 205)
2013 Stats (4 Games): Passing: 79/110, 1,214 yds, 11.0 yds/att, 71.8 comp%, 14 TD, 1 INT; Rushing: 12 att, 36 yds, 0 TD
2014 Draft Projection: #1 Overall Pick
Teddy is a virtual Andrew Luck clone – he has a plus arm (better velocity than Luck) with pinpoint accuracy and is an exceptional athlete (should run a 4.60-4.65 the NFL Combine) who goes through all his progressions before leaving the pocket. Louisville faces inferior opponents, but don’t look at how open receivers are, look at Bridgewater’s ball placement. It’s almost always perfect, leading receivers on the hands without having them break stride. Teddy is a bit thin, but has the frame to put on 20 pounds. There is a zero percent chance the Eagles end up with Bridgewater. He will likely be the starting QB of the Jacksonville Jaguars on opening day 2014 after going #1 overall in the draft.

Marcus Mariota, Oregon (6-4, 212)
2013 Stats (4 Games): Passing: 60/107, 1,003 yds, 9.4 yds/att, 56.1 comp%, 9 TD, 0 INT; Rushing: 21 att, 295 yds, 5 TD
2014 Draft Projection: Top 10 Pick
Unless Braxton Miller of Ohio State comes out for the 2014 NFL Draft (he shouldn’t), Mariota will be the fastest QB available. It wouldn’t shock me to see him run a 4.45 at the Combine. Keep in mind, Colin Kaepernick ran a 4.53, Russell Wilson ran a 4.55 and Cam Newton ran a 4.59, so Mariota can really fly. He’s tall and has the strongest arm in the class, invoking comparisons to Kaepernick and Randall Cunningham. He’s built more like Randall, thin and wiry. He has issues with accuracy at times and often throws to wide-open receivers in Oregon’s blistering offense. None of this should matter because he’s supremely talented and the pinpoint accuracy will come in due time. He would be perfect for Chip Kelly, who recruited and coached him during his breakout season as a redshirt freshman in 2012. If the Eagles are 8-8 or 9-7, they will have to trade up significantly to draft Mariota, who has the upside of being the #2 overall pick in the draft.

Brett Hundley, UCLA (6-3, 227)
2013 Stats (3 Games): Passing: 61/92, 848 yds, 9.2 yds/att, 66.3 comp%, 8 TD, 3 INT; Rushing: 32 att, 157 yds, 2 TD
2014 Draft Projection:
Top 10 Pick
Built like a tank, Hundley has a rocket arm and very good athletic ability. He’s not fast, but will time better than most QB’s in the 4.65-4.75 range. UCLA has limited NFL prospects on offense, so Hundley is lighting up Pac-12 teams almost on his own. He’s a poor-man’s Cam Newton. Big and strong, but not that big and strong. Great velocity, but not the top-3 NFL arm Cam has. Very athletic, but not as fast. There will be scouts that like him over every QB other than Bridgewater in the 2014 NFL Draft because of his plus size and athletic ability. He’s only 20 and that 227 is a ripped 227. He could very well end up in the 240 range. He’s probably a Top-5 NFL Draft Pick - the Eagles would have to trade up to get him unless their defense completely shits the bed all season. I don’t think that will happen. I’ll wager he’s picked before Mariota because of his ideal size and experience playing in a more conventional offense. Mariota is a much better fit for Chip Kelly, so the Eagles would be thrilled to see a team pass up on him to select Hundley in the draft.

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M (6-0, 210)
2013 Stats (5 Games): Passing: 100/140, 1,489 yds, 10.6 yds/att, 71.4 comp%, 14 TD, 4 INT; Rushing: 48 att, 314 yds, 3 TD
2014 Draft Projection: Late 1st / Early 2nd Round
Despite the bad rap, I love Johnny’s attitude on the field and so do his teammates. When he’s not taunting opponents after a touchdown, Johnny is calm and collect in the face of adversity and his teammates gravitate to that, which you could really see in Texas A&M’s rally vs Alabama. Media and fans who want every football player to act like Tim Tebow have zero impact on how high Manziel gets drafted. His arm has gotten stronger since last season and is about NFL average right now, in the same league as Tony Romo when you look at velocity. His footwork has improved dramatically and that has really impacted his accuracy for the better. The obvious feature with Johnny is escapability and speed. Johnny is legitimately fast. The lazy comparisons NFL pundits make is Jeff Garcia and Doug Flutie because Johnny is white, but he is much faster than those players. He will likely time in the 4.45-4.50 range at the combine, which is almost as fast as RG3 (4.41 in 2012) and faster than Steve Young (4.50 in 1984). That’s actually the upside for Johnny – Steve Young was a shorter, lighter QB with an average arm, tremendous accuracy and great speed. They are nothing alike off the field, but are both killers on the field. Manziel’s height/weight doesn’t bother me – he’s bigger than Russell Wilson and the same size as Steve Young and Drew Brees. Chip Kelly loved Johnny in high school - Manziel verbally committed to Oregon before switching to A&M after deciding he’d like to play closer to his home in Texas. If the Eagles end up 9-7 or 10-6, Johnny could very well fall into their lap later in the 1st Round and Chip may finally get his guy.

Tajh Boyd, Clemson (6-1, 225)
2013 Stats (4 Games): Passing: 73/114, 994 yds, 8.7 yds/att, 64.0 comp%, 9 TD, 0 INT; Rushing: 49 att, 159 yds, 4 TD
2014 Draft Projection: Late 1st / Early 2nd Round
In some ways, Boyd reminds me of Donovan McNabb. He is thickly built with a big arm and a pretty deep ball, but struggles with accuracy on short and intermediate routes. He’s also a fantastic leader and has helped place Clemson at the top of the ACC, coming through with huge performances in big games against Georgia in 2013 and LSU in 2012. He plays faster than he times, and will run around the same time McNabb did at the NFL Combine (4.64 in 1999). Even with the accuracy concerns and less-than-ideal height, it would not surprise me if Boyd was drafted in the top 15 picks because of his supreme leadership qualities and above average arm strength and speed, similar to when Buffalo drafted EJ Manuel with the 16th pick in 2013 with the same attributes and accuracy concerns. Boyd would fit in well with Chip Kelly’s offense and could be available after the first half of the 1st Round.