With the 2011 NFL Draft just three days away, I’ve put together the first round of my mock draft, complete with college stats and comments on each selection. If you are a real draft sicko and want to check out my 2011 Top 100 Players spreadsheet, including combine workout numbers, you can view it
HERE.
This is how I think the first round will fall into place:
1st Pick: CAROLINA PANTHERS SELECT … Cam Newton, QB, AuburnHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-5 / 248 / 4.59
2010 Statistics: 14gp, pass: 280/185-2854-30-7, rush: 264-1473-20, rec: 2-42-1
My Take: Is Newton ever going to dissect a playbook like Brady, McNabb, Manning, or Brees? No, he’s probably a little too slow upstairs. But he’s the right pick at number one. Carolina scored just 17 touchdowns last season. If Newton starts as a rookie, you can double that number. I don’t care if he can’t digest a complex playbook, he’s a winner and unstoppable in the red zone. Newton is Vince Young with a better arm and a solid support system – his brother is a NFL lineman with Jacksonville and he is extremely close with his father. Say what you will about his father, but Cam and his dad have a very close relationship. Vince Young never had a father-figure growing up and had tons of emotional baggage by the time he reached the NFL as a result. Newton is what Young could have, should have been.
2nd Pick: DENVER BRONCOS SELECT … Marcell Dareus, DT, AlabamaHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-3 ¼ / 319 / 4.93
2010 Statistics: 11gp, 34tkl, 4.5sack, 4pbu
My Take: I personally think Nick Fairley will have the better NFL career. Dareus is a safe pick – he’s going to stuff the run and get you 5-8 sacks every year. Great player. Pro Bowl player. I just think Fairley has a NFL sack title in his future.
3rd Pick: BUFFALO BILLS SELECT … Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&MHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-2 ¾ / 246 / 4.53
2010 Statistics: 13gp, 68tkl, 10.5sack, int: 1-3-0, 6pbu, 3ff, 2fr
My Take: Speaking of NFL sack titles, you can already write Miller’s name in the record books with a pencil. A relentless pass rusher, Miller will go sideline-to-sideline to tackle a ball carrier. Him, Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green are the three guys that have the best shots, barring injury, of ending up in Canton 20 years from now.
4th Pick: CINCINNATI BENGALS SELECT … A.J. Green, WR, GeorgiaHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-3 ¾ / 211 / 4.50
2010 Statistics: 9gp, rec: 57-848-9, rush: 3-44-0, pr: 2-25-0
My Take: Slower, skinner and less explosive than Julio Jones, Green is still the best receiver in this draft. He’s silky smooth with exceptional body control and hands. Is he Randy Moss? No, but he’s a taller Isaac Bruce, and I’d take that.
5th Pick: ARIZONA CARDINALS SELECT … Blaine Gabbert, QB, MissouriHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-4 ½ / 234 / 4.62
2010 Statistics: 13gp, pass: 475/301-3186-16-9, rush: 112-232-5
My Take: Let it be known that I am not a big fan of Gabbert. He looks like a guy you would cast in a movie as an NFL quarterback - big and strong, blond flowing hair – but he is completely unfamiliar with a pro-style offense, and does not have the God-given ability of Cam Newton to play on just sheer talent. If I were Arizona, I would pick Ryan Mallett, sit back and watch him flick 60-yard bombs to Larry Fitzgerald all day long.
6th Pick: CLEVELAND BROWNS SELECT … Patrick Peterson, CB, LSUHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-0 ¼ / 219 / 4.34
2010 Statistics: 13gp, int: 4-134-0, 42tkl, 6pbu, 1blk, pr: 26-418-2, kr: 32-932-0
My Take: Cleveland Browns General Manager Tom Heckert, going back to his time with the Eagles, always takes the #1 player on the board. So while corner isn’t a huge need – Joe Haden was their 1st pick last year and is outstanding – Peterson is the best player on the board and I don’t see Heckert taking chances on defensive linemen like Nick Fairley (attitude) or DaQuan Bowers (knee) with him still available. A Haden and Peterson combination would dominate receivers for the next 8-10 years. Cleveland does have a glaring need at receiver and Julio Jones would make a lot of sense, I just don’t see Heckert drafting for need.
7th Pick: SAN FRANCISCO 49’ers SELECT … Robert Quinn, OLB, North CarolinaHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-4 / 265 / 4.70
2010 Statistics: Did Not Play
My Take: Quinn, who didn’t play in 2010 because of a NCAA violation, is big and fast in the mold of DeMarcus Ware. There are lots of question marks when it comes to Quinn. He has a benign brain tumor. He piled up 11 sacks as a sophomore in 2009, but many of them were against inferior competition. That said, he ran a 4.58 at his pro day and that’s moving at 265 pounds. Best case, he turns into Ware. Worst case….anyone know what Vernon Gholston is doing these days?
8th Pick: TENNESSEE TITANS SELECT … Nick Fairley, DT, AuburnHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-4 / 291 / 4.87
2010 Statistics: 14gp, 60tkl, 11.5sack, int: 1-(-1)-0, 2ff, 2fr
My Take: There are warning signs attached to Fairley. He’s a little skinny from the waist down. He’s ill-tempered on the field and lackadaisical off. But when you watch him play, ZOMG he’s good. I haven’t seen a defensive tackle split the gap like Fairley since Warren Sapp. He’s not the same player as Ndamukong Suh - he’s lighter and faster - but he could potentially have the same gigantic impact on a team.
9th Pick: DALLAS COWBOYS SELECT … Tyron Smith, OT, USCHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-5 / 307 / 4.98
2010 Statistics: 12/12gp/gs
My Take: I’m amazed at how ripped Smith is at 307 pounds. The dude has zero body fat and he doesn’t just look the part – Smith started at USC as a true freshman and dominated at the right tackle position from day one. Dallas will roll the dice and hope he makes a successful transition to left tackle. If not, he will do just fine as a dominant run-blocker from the right side.
10th Pick: WASHINGTON REDSKINS SELECT … Julio Jones, WR, AlabamaHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-2 ¾ / 220 / 4.39
2010 Statistics: 13gp, rec: 78-1133-7, rush: 8-135-2, pr: 5-44-0, kr: 5-129-0
My Take: Jones is Anquan Boldin on steroids. He is bigger, faster and an even better run blocker than Boldin. In fact, he might be the best blocking receiver in the NFL as soon as the season starts. Not a bad quality to have when you are a 220-pounder with 4.39 speed. People say he drops easy balls, but he can cure that and no one in this draft plays with more aggression. If you took Terrell Owens and gave him the heart and blocking skills of a Hines Ward or Boldin, that’s how good Jones could be. Assuming he's injury-free, in five years everyone will ask “How did Julio Jones fall to the 10th pick in the draft?.”
11th Pick: HOUSTON TEXANS SELECT … J.J. Watt, DE, WisconsinHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-5 ½ / 290 / 4.84
2010 Statistics: 13gp, 62tkl, 7.0sack, int: 1-15-0, 8pbu, 3ff, 2fr, 3blk
My Take: The Texans are switching to the 3-4 defense this year and Watt is the perfect compliment to Mario Williams at defensive end. Watt is a beast – his passion, relentlessness and brute strength remind me of Howie Long. Him and Williams give the Texans two 290+ pound defensive ends that can blow up the backfield. That’s an ideal way to start a new defense and nothing will cover up Houston’s porous secondary like a strong pass-rush.
12th Pick: MINNESOTA VIKINGS SELECT … DaQuan Bowers, DE, ClemsonHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-3 ½ / 280 / 4.91
2010 Statistics: 13gp, 73tkl, 15.5sack, int: 1-0-0, 2pbu, 1ff
My Take: Minnesota thinks long and hard about taking Jake Locker here, but in the end, I think they want to sign a veteran quarterback like Donovan McNabb or Vince Young when the labor dispute is settled. Bowers is a monstrous defensive end that can bookend with Jared Allen to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Concerns over the condition of Bowers’ knee are long-tem, and I think Minnesota overlooks that and takes a gamble to win right now. Bowers led the NCAA with 15.5 sacks and was the number-one defensive player in high school three years ago. His upside, assuming he doesn’t break down, is worthy of a top-three pick.
13th Pick: DETROIT LIONS SELECT … Prince Amukamara, CB, NebraskaHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-0 / 206 / 4.43
2010 Statistics: 14gp, 59tkl, 1.0sack, 13pbu
My Take: Amukamara teams up with his former college teammate Ndamukong Suh to anchor Detroit’s defense while frustrating football play-by-play analysts everywhere. I think Amukamara is a bit overrated – he and Jimmy Smith are neck and neck in talent – but he’s a quality cover-corner who can tackle. If he can learn when to turn his head around, he’ll develop into the playmaker this position in the draft warrants.
14th Pick: ST. LOUIS RAMS SELECT … Corey Liuget, DT, IllinoisHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-2 ¼ / 298 / 4.99
2010 Statistics: 13gp, 63tkl, 4.5sack, 3pbu
My Take: Some think Liuget is a better defensive tackle prospect than Nick Fairley. I won’t go there, but he offers good speed and pass rushing ability for the position. He’s one of the fastest rising players heading into the draft. The Rams could really use a receiver to take the heat off Sam Bradford, but with Julio Jones off the board, Liuget fills a position of need and offers lots of upside.
15th Pick: MIAMI DOLPHINS SELECT … Ryan Mallett, QB, ArkansasHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-6 ¾ / 253 / 5.37
2010 Statistics: 13gp, pass: 411/266-3869-32-12, rush: 44-(-76)-4
My Take: Shades of Dan Marino falling to the Dolphins with the 27th pick in 1983, Miami should steal Mallett in the middle of round one. Many people have Mallett pegged as a second round pick, but I have know idea what tape they are watching. The player I see looks just like Drew Bledsoe in his prime. Mallett will instantly have the strongest arm in the NFL and has experience playing in a pro style offense with a multitude of reads and calls at the line on every possession, which should be a major asset, especially compared to his peers in this class who ran gimmick offenses in college (Gabbert, Newton, Andy Dalton). Like Marino, Mallett has been accused of drug use leading up to the draft. I think this story ends up the same – Dolphins steal yet another All-Pro quarterback.
16th Pick: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS SELECT … Aldon Smith, DE, MissouriHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-4 ¼ / 263 / 4.78
2010 Statistics: 10gp, 48tkl, 5.5sack, int: 1-58-0, 2pbu, 1ff
My Take: Smith has a bit of Jevon Kearse in him. Like Kearse, Smith is a defensive end / outside linebacker hybrid who can really explode into the backfield and change games. He’s only played two years, and he was injured in 2010, so there isn’t a lot of tape to go on, but his explosion off the snap can’t be taught.
17th Pick: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS SELECT … Cameron Jordan, DE, California GeorgiaHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-4 ¼ / 287 / 4.78
2010 Statistics: 12gp, 62tkl, 5.5sack, 4pbu, 3ff, 1fr (1fr-TD)
My Take: New England has the envious position of going 14-2 and choosing between a stud 3-4 defensive end (Jordan) and a stud interior lineman (Mike Pouncey). Both are positions of need, but I’ll bet New England goes with the more valuable position. Jordan’s dad was a longtime standout tight end in the NFL, and after watching Cameron dominate the Senior Bowl, it’s fair to say he will more than fill his father’s footsteps.
18th Pick: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS SELECT … Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, PurdueHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-4 / 267 / 4.71
2010 Statistics: 12gp, 70tkl, 12.5sack, 1pbu, 5ff, 2fr
My Take: Kerrigan teams with fellow Boilermaker Shaun Phillips for a formidable pass-rushing tandem in San Diego. Lots of people are taking shots at Kerrigan’s “lack of athleticism,” but what tape are they watching? I see a relentless pass rusher who posted a 4.71 time at the NFL Combine – the same number as hyped athlete extraordinaire Robert Quinn. For those who doubt Kerrigan’s athletic prowess and downplay his relentless style of play as a significant attribute, does Clay Matthews ring a bell?
19th Pick: NEW YORK GIANTS SELECT … Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston CollegeHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-7 / 311 / 5.23
2010 Statistics: 13/13gp/gs
My Take: A four-year starter, Castonzo has experience and a strong punch in his favor. He’s not the best athlete in the world, but his footwork should keep him on the left side to protect Eli Manning from routinely getting hammered. The Giants can’t possibly pass on a player named “Castonzo.”
20th Pick: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SELECT … Adrian Clayborn, DE, IowaHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-2 ¾ / 281 / 4.83
2010 Statistics: 13gp, 52tkl, 3.5sack, 1pbu, 1ff, 1blk
My Take: Tampa Bay addressed the interior of the defensive line last year by taking tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price with their first two picks. This time, they take Clayborn, the best defensive player on the board, to help their young defense become even more formidable up front. Clayborn is a top-15 talent that falls a little in a draft rich with defensive line prospects.
21st Pick: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SELECT … Torrey Smith, WR, MarylandHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-1 / 204 / 4.43
2010 Statistics: 13gp, rec: 67-1055-12, rush: 9-7-0, pr: 1-0-0, kr: 30-585-0
My Take: After Dwayne Bowe lit the world on fire during the first half of last season, opponents successfully did everything possible to take him away because Kansas City had no one else who could hurt you deep. Enter Smith, who’s 4.43 speed and explosive cutting ability will make defensive coordinators think twice about double-teaming Bowe.
22nd Pick: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS SELECT … Mike Pouncey, OG, FloridaHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-5 / 303 / 5.28
2010 Statistics: 13/13gp/gs
My Take: Everyone has Pouncey in the top 15, but not me. He’s a very good player, but he’s not as good as his identical twin brother Maurkice. Mike is an exceptional pulling guard – perfect for the stretch plays Manning and the Colts use on a consistent basis. In time, he can develop into a center, taking the baton from longtime starter Jeff Saturday. But right now, Pouncey can barely snap the ball in shotgun formation, and guys who can only play guard are not taken in the top 15.
23rd Pick: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES SELECT … Jimmy Smith, CB, ColoradoHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-2 ¼ / 211 / 4.46
2010 Statistics: 12gp, 70tkl, 5pbu, 1ff, 1fr
My Take: Smith might be the best cover corner in this draft, even better than Patrick Peterson. He’s a huge corner with speed and a mean streak. He actually reminds me of Raiders All-Pro corner Nnamdi Asomugha in both body type and style of play. If he can keep his posse in check, Smith could end up as the steal of this draft. Teamed with Asante Samuel, the Eagles could shut down opposing passers.
24th Pick: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS SELECT … Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, TempleHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-4 ¼ / 315 / 4.96
2010 Statistics: 12gp, 70tkl, 9.5sack, 3pbu, 2ff, 1fr, rec: 1-3-0
My Take: The Saints desperately need a pass rusher to team up with Will Smith and Wilkerson gives them just that. Versatile, Wilkerson lined up at defensive tackle in college but shouldn't have an issue at defensive end. The Saints like big defensive ends in their scheme and Wilkerson fits the bill.
25th Pick: ***TRADE WITH SEAHAWKS*** BILLS SELECT … Jake Locker, QB, WashingtonHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-2 ½ / 231 / 4.59
2010 Statistics: 12gp, pass: 332/184-2265-17-9, rush: 114-386-6, rec: 1-16-0
My Take: Buffalo trades the 34th overall pick and a second round pick in 2012 to Seattle for their quarterback of the future. Locker has the arm and legs of a superstar, but he needs time to digest a playbook and master progressions. After all, he’s only played two years as a real quarterback – he was an option QB in high school and during his first three years at Washington. The presence of Ryan Fitzpatrick gives Locker time to learn.
26th Pick: BALTIMORE RAVENS SELECT … Gabe Carimi, OT, WisconsinHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-7 / 314 / 5.27
2010 Statistics: 13/13gp/gs
My Take: The rich keep getting richer. Baltimore, who almost never misses on a first round pick, would love the opportunity to select Carimi as a bookend to left tackle Michael Oher. Baltimore’s run game was down last season - they rushed for just 3.8 yards per carry - and Carimi can pave the way for Ray Rice to run all over opponents in 2012. He’s the nastiest player in this draft and I would not be shocked if he ends up with more accolades than any other offensive lineman in this class when it’s all said and done.
27th Pick: ATLANTA FALCONS SELECT … Marvin Austin, DT, North CarolinaHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-1 ¾ / 309 / 4.90
2010 Statistics: Did Not Play
My Take: Austin has top-15 ability. His NCAA violations prohibited him from playing in 2010, but he worked his ass off to prepare for the East-West Shrine Game and NFL Combine and it really paid off. I see him as having the same type of NFL career as Marcell Dareus, without having to pay him like the 2nd overall pick in the draft.
28th Pick: ***TRADE WITH PATRIOTS*** BENGALS SELECT … Andy Dalton, QB, TCUHeight/Weight/Speed: 6-2 / 215 / 4.87
2010 Statistics: 13gp, pass: 316/209-2857-27-6, rush: 86-435-6, punt: 1-21-0
My Take: Cincinnati trades the 35th overall pick in round two and a second round pick in 2012 to New England to take Dalton. Best-case scenario, Dalton develops into Drew Brees – another undersized guy with an average arm who is a better-than-you’d-expect athlete and a genius on the football field. Having watched Brees up close at Purdue, Dalton displays similar moxie on the field. I think he pans out.
29th Pick: CHICAGO BEARS SELECT … Nate Solder, OT, ColoradoHeight/Weight: 6-8 ¼ / 319 / 5.05
2010 Statistics: 12/12gp/gs
My Take: Even after taking Chris Williams in the first round in 2008, the Bears have the worst offensive line in football. Assuming they want Jay Cutler upright, Chicago is thrilled Solder is still on the board. A converted tight end, Solder is far from a completed project and needs more reps against speed rushers. He does have exceptional athleticism, so you’d think he develops into a quality left tackle down the line.
30th Pick: NEW YORK JETS SELECT … Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLAHeight/Weight: 6-2 ½ / 254 / 4.88
2010 Statistics: 12gp, 68tkl, 4.0sack, int: 2-90-0, 4pbu, 2ff, 2fr
My Take: Ayers can rush the passer, drop back into coverage, you name it, he did it in college. Below average athletic showings at the combine and UCLA’s pro day drop him to the Jets, who are happy to deploy their shiny new toy in a defensive scheme that values flexibility.
31st Pick: PITTSBURGH STEELERS SELECT … Ras-I Dowling, CB, VirginiaHeight/Weight: 6-1 ½ / 198 / 4.46
2010 Statistics: 5gp, 15tkl, 1pbu
My Take: This is the first “REALLY???” pick of the draft. The Steelers have a need at corner and no one really thinks Aaron Williams or Brandon Harris are first-round talents, so the Steelers take the injured but immensely talented Dowling with their first pick. When you have the roster Pittsburgh has, you can take chances on talented players who have concerns.
32nd Pick: GREEN BAY PACKERS SELECT … Mark Ingram, RB, AlabamaHeight/Weight: 5-9 ¼ / 215 / 4.62
2010 Statistics: 11gp, rush: 158-875-13, rec: 21-282-1, kr: 1-19-0
My Take: The 2009 Heisman Trophy Winner’s wait ends with Green Bay. Ingram is a tough, shifty runner with good hands and initial explosion. His long-speed is a concern, and he was the second best runner in his own backfield in my opinion (Trent Richardson is a future Top-10 pick), but Ingram provides some value at the end of round one. He won’t turn into Emmitt Smith, but he should easily beat out Ryan Grant and James Starks for the starting running back job and take some pressure off Aaron Rodgers.
