Monday, March 4, 2013

Peyton Manning & Tom Brady Are Dinosaurs

A common saying in NFL upper management and scouting circles is that they are "slaves to college football."

If that's the case, and it logically would be, immobile pocket passers like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are finished. Hyper-athletic youth football athletes are playing quarterback over running back and wide receiver. Almost everyone in college football is using the spread offense, with a large package of read-option and pistol formation sprinkled in on game day. This is not a fad - these athletes can really throw the ball.

An astonishing 14 of 32 projected starting quarterbacks entering 2013 ran their 40-yard dash coming out of college in under 4.72 seconds - a faster time than All-Pro wide receiver Anquan Boldin, who ran a 4.72 in 2003. Of these 14 quarterbacks, 11 have been drafted in the past three draft classes. That my friend is a trend, one that is picking up serious momentum. Here's a list of projected 2013 starters who are "dual-threat" quarterbacks, ranked by their 40-time (year drafted in parenthesis):

Michael Vick, 4.33 (2001)
Robert Griffin III, 4.41 (2012)
Colin Kaepernick, 4.53 (2011)
Russell Wilson, 4.55 (2012)
Cam Newton, 4.59 (2011)
Geno Smith, 4.59 (2013)
Jake Locker, 4.59 (2011)
Blaine Gabbert, 4.62 (2011)
EJ Manuel, 4.65 (2013)
Ryan Tannehill, 4.65 (2012)
Christian Ponder, 4.65 (2011)
Andrew Luck, 4.67 (2012)
Aaron Rodgers, 4.71 (2005)
Alex Smith, 4.71 (2005)

I've taken the liberty of including Geno Smith and EJ Manuel from the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft. Both are projected Top-40 picks, and you don't take quarterbacks that high unless you plan on starting them sooner than later.

The 2014 NFL Draft will continue along this trend: dual-threat quarterbacks Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville), Logan Thomas (Virginia Tech), Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M) and Tajh Boyd (Clemson) are all projected Top-40 picks. Soon, as in by this time next year, at least half of NFL clubs will be led by quarterbacks who can run.

Yes, Joe Flacco just won the Super Bowl. But the likes of his kind will soon be in the minority. Tom Brady will be 36 at the start of 2013. Peyton Manning will be 37. They are the last great Mahicans of the immobile pocket passer. The Colin Kaepernick's, RG3's and Cam Newton's are supremely blessed, for they will inherit the earth.