Ruben Amaro's Incompetence is Destroying the Phillies

I know, I know, the Phillies just won the World Series so I’m supposed to have some sort of “grace period” where I don’t care what happens to the organization for a while because they just delivered a World Championship that will be remembered for all-time. But with the recent signing of Raul Ibanez for three years and $30M, and the subsequent divorce from Pat Burrell as a result of the signing, I just can’t hold the anger inside.

New Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro is a fucking idiot.

I have no idea how you could possible fuck up more than signing a 36-year-old left-handed leftfielder who is just as slow as Pat Burrell, just as awful in the field as Pat Burrell, four years older than Pat Burrell and not even close to the hitter that “Pat the Bat” is. That’s not even the half of it. Amaro managed to lose a first round draft pick in 2009 by signing Ibanez (a “Type A” free agent) while opting NOT to take two compensation first round draft picks when Burrell (also a Type A free agent) signs with another team because he refused to offer Burrell arbitration. Total incompetence.

Let’s break this down boys and girls.

By not giving Burrell an arbitration offer (that’s a one-year contract negotiated by an arbitrator that over 90% of players decline anyway), Amaro gave up a first round draft pick and a sandwich round draft pick. You see, if a Type A free agent signs with a new team, and he was offered arbitration by his former team, that ballclub gets the latter team’s first round draft pick and an additional sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. Why did Amaro refuse to give Burrell arbitration? He did it to “protect” the Phillies from Pat Burrell taking them to an arbitrator and getting a one-year $15M contract.

Here’s the problem. There is no way Pat Burrell was going to accept arbitration. The Giants or Rays desperately need a power-hitting leftfielder with a .400 on-base percentage and they will offer him much more than a one-year deal. Even if Burrell did accept arbitration, so what? You get one more year of a right-handed, power-hitting, one-base machine to perfectly break up Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, the Phil’s left-handed dynamic duo.

Instead, the Phillies told Pat to fuck off, didn’t offer him arbitration, never offered him a contract and signed Raul Ibanez, an inferior player who is GOING TO BE 37 YEARS OLD NEXT SEASON!!!! Oh, and Ibanez will cost the Phillies their first round draft pick next year, which now belongs to Seattle, because, you know, their GM isn’t fucking retarded as he offered Ibanez arbitration.

What I can’t figure out for the life of me is that if Amaro knew he was going to replace Burrell (and not even calling his agent is a pretty good indicator), there is a 100% chance Burrell refuses arbitration. Why would Burrell accept a one-year contract when he knows that he would be on the bench behind Ibanez? He wouldn’t. That would effectively kill his value at the end of the year. This is what is truly unforgivable in my eyes and it would have never gone down if Mike Arbuckle was named Phillies GM instead of Amaro. By the way, in case you forgot, Chase Utley, Brett Myers and Cole Hamels are all former Phillies first round draft picks. You don’t just give those picks away. It destroys your farm system.

The ultimate kick in the ass is that Ibanez is not as good as Burrell. Sure, he had a career-year last season, but at age 36, there is no way he will consistently replicate those numbers over the next three years. Let’s compare Burrell and Ibanez over the past four seasons (WARP = wins above replacement player, RAA = defensive runs above average, OPS+ = one-base percentage + slugging percentage in comparison to the league average) –

Pat Burrell
Year	WARP	RAA	OPS+	HR	BB
2005	6.8	1	128	32	99
2006	4.5	-6	122	29	98
2007	4.0	-18	127	30	114
2008	5.2	-11	125	33	102
TOTALS	20.5	-34	126	124	413
Raul Ibanez
Year	WARP	RAA	OPS+	HR	BB
2005	4.7	-1	115	20	71
2006	6.4	-5	125	33	65
2007	4.0	-17	121	21	53
2008	7.4	1	124	23	64
TOTALS	22.5	-22	121	97	253

Burrell and Ibanez have almost identical WARP numbers, with Ibanez worth a whopping two more wins than Burrell over the past four years. This is entirely due to Burrell’s -34 RAA (a measuring stick for defensive ability), but you can pretty much ignore this figure. Burrell’s RAA suffers because Charlie Manuel removes him from games for defensive purposes, which lowers his putout numbers, which in turn lowers his defensive range and RAA. Ibanez plays the entire game, giving him better range numbers despite being just as awful in leftfield as Burrell (as evidenced by his -17 RAA in 2007). At the plate, Burrell’s 126 OPS+ is five percentage points better than Ibanez and his home run (124) and walk (413) totals trump Ibanez by a large margin. Simply put, Raul Ibanez is no Pat Burrell. Sure, he puts the ball in play more often, but he also gets on base much less often, and in that lineup, in that ballpark, you need to get on base as much as possible to play for the three-run homer.

Finally, and no one seems to be talking about this, Ibanez is a left-handed hitter. That gives the Phillies the following opening-day lineup:

SS, Rollins (S)
RF, Werth (R)
2B, Utley (L)
1B, Howard (L)
LF, Ibanez (L)
CF, Victorino (S)
3B, Feliz (R)
C, Ruiz (R)

You just can’t have your 3-4-5 hitters all be left-handed. The middle of your lineup can now be effectively shut down by a left-handed reliever, ending any hopes of a come-from-behind win. Now, Manuel is forced to put together stupid lineups, with Victorino and/or Werth hitting 4th or 5th. Not good.

So let’s get this straight. For the same amount of money it would have taken to sign Pat Burrell, the Phillies signed a 37-year old, slow, poor-fielding leftfielder who is less of a hitter than Burrell, doesn’t fit in their now left-handed-heavy middle of the order and cost them two first round draft picks. Great job, Ruben Amaro. I can’t wait to see what other brilliant moves you have in store.