According to multiple sources, the Astros and Phillies have agreed to both money and players in a trade for Roy Oswalt. The Phillies will send J.A. Happ and "prospects" to the Astros in exchange for Oswalt with the 'Stros picking up the remainder of Oswalt's salary this season. The Phillies will be on the hook for Oswalt's $16M salary in 2011 and may or may not be reponsable for picking up his player option in 2012 (also $16M).
The only thing stopping the trade is Oswalt himself - who has three days to approve the deal. Philadelphia, riding a seven-game winning streak and having just called up electric rookie phenom Domonic Brown, can potentially boast a three-pitcher playoff rotation of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Oswalt. Talk about gaining some huge momentum for a playoff push. This move is a potential game-changer in the division and would make the Phillies a formidable World Series contender.
Not all Phillies fans are as enthused about Oswalt as I am. Lots of fans look at Oswalt's size (5-11ish, 185pounds) and wonder if he can hold up over the next 2 1/2 years. I've also heard uninformed comments like "he's not that good" and "he has a losing record." First off, Oswalt's 6-12 record is useless information. His ERA is 3.42 and his xFIP is 3.45. He's pitched 6.45 innings/start and his 8.37 K/9, 3.53 K/BB and 1.11 WHIP rates are outstanding. As for the question of whether a short, thin dude can maintain his status as a power pitcher over the next few seasons, let's take a look at his annual average fastball velocity, courtesy of the amazing site fangraphs:
2002: 93.7
2003: 93.1
2004: 94.0
2005: 93.1
2006: 92.7
2007: 92.7
2008: 92.6
2009: 93.1
2010: 93.0
Not much change in velocity right? Oswalt is throwing harder now than he was four years ago. He's still only 32 years old and I'd gamble his arm will hold up over the next two seasons. The upside is huge. Halladay is the perfect pitcher to throw three times in a seven-game playoff series. A World Series matchup with the Yankees doesn't seem nearly as daunting with a rotation of Halladay-Hamels-Oswalt-Halladay-Hamels-Oswalt-Halladay.
The real question, other than if Oswalt will actually approve the trade, is what prospects the Phillies will have to part with. J.A. Happ is no big deal - he's a decent #4 pitcher who will always walk too many batters and doesn't throw nearly hard enough (89.2mph avg fastball) to become an impact pitcher. I put together an updated Phillies Top 10 Prospects list a few days ago, and it's a good reference point to look at when names of prospects included in the trade become public knowledge. I just hope the Phillies hold on to Jarred Cosart and Trevor May, two righthanders who light up the radar gun. The Phillies have plenty of talented bats and outfielders they can part with (Jonathan Singleton, Jiwan James, Anthony Gose), but few impact pitchers. Cosart and May are the cream of the crop and hopefully the Phillies won't have to let them go in a trade for a 32-year old pitcher with $32M left on his contract.
***UPDATE***
Richard Justice, columnist for the Houston Chronicle, is reporting that Jonathan Singleton and Vance Worley are the two Phillies prospects being sent to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt trade. You can read my writeup on Singleton here. He's my #3 overall prospect in the Phillies organization, but is restricted to playing first base which makes him highly expendable in Ryan Howard's considerable shadow. Worley is a 6-2, 220-pound righthanded pitcher who is 9-4 with a 3.03 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 118 innings this year at Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. I love this trade. Singleton could potentially become an impact hitter in three years, but Howard will still be under contract. Worley is an OK pitcher who will never become a star and probably ends up in the bullpen.
***DOUBLE UPDATE***
Richard Justice needs new sources. Oswalt has agreed to the trade, making it final, but Philadelphia will NOT be sending top-prospect Jonathan Singleton, or Vance Worley for that matter, to Houston. Philly is sending Anthony Gose (#7 on my Updated Top 10 Phillies Prospects List) and Jonathan Villar instead. The Phillies have absolutely fleeced Astros General Manager Ed Wade with this deal. Read my full post here.
IN OTHER PHILLIES NEWS:
The aforementioned Domonic Brown put his considerable talents on full display in his major league debut last night. Brown blasted an RBI double off the wall against flamethrower Edwin Jackson in his first MLB at bat and ended his night 2-3 with 2 runs and 2 RBI. Just as I suggested yesterday, Brown hit 6th in the order, behind Jayson Werth, but it looks like the Phillies are committed to playing him in rightfield with Werth manning center. This makes sense as Werth has played some centerfield in the majors before, but I still maintain Brown can play the position better than Werth with his superior speed and range. However, I completely understand the Phillies not wanting to move Brown to a position he hasn't played at in two years for his major league debut. Shane Victorino will be back in two weeks, so the issue is a minor one. Now what the Phillies will do with Victorino if Brown, Werth and Ibanez continue to hit is an entirely different story.
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