Pat Burrell, Man or Machine?

I read a great article on Pat Burrell by Rich Hoffman in yesterday’s Philadelphia Daily News. Hoffman notes that “Pat the Bat” is one of just 23 players to hit 200 homeruns and 750 RBI since 2000 – a list that includes Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez and Albert Pujols, among others.

Burrell has been unfairly maligned by Phillies fans throughout his career for a number of reasons, including his once prodigious man-whore exploits, but the naysayers main problem with Pat is that they don’t think he ever lived up to the lofty expectations placed on him when he was the #1 overall pick in the 1998 MLB Draft. I mean, he should have like 500 homeruns and a .300 career batting average, right? The city of Philadelphia has lost some world class talent in the past (Charles Barkley, Scott Rolen, Randall Cunningham anyone?) due to ridiculous expectations from moronic fans, and when Pat’s contract runs out at the end of the season, here’s hoping management ignores the haters and signs him to a four or five-year deal. Now back to those expectations. Was Pat Burrell really a bust as the #1 overall pick?

Not even close. When Pat hangs up his cleats, he will likely be the 7^th best #1 overall pick in the history of the June Amateur Baseball Draft (which began in 1965). Taking a look at every first-overall pick from 1965-1998, Pat currently ranks 14^th in career “Wins Above Replacement Player,” or WARP. By using WARP, which takes into account hitting, fielding, running and pitching when evaluating a player, I can easily compare pitchers and hitters, and adjust for their defensive prowess (or lack thereof) and the era they played in. Here are the top 15 first-overall draft picks according to their career WARP (Current players stats are through June 18, 2008) -

RANK	PLAYER	DRAFTED	WARP
1	Alex Rodriguez*	1993	109.6
2	Ken Griffey Jr.*	1987	109.4
3	Chipper Jones*	1990	91.7
4	Harold Baines	1977	82.0
5	Darryl Strawberry	1980	71.5
6	Rick Monday	1965	70.1
7	Mike Moore	1981	61.2
8	Floyd Bannister	1976	56.7
9	B.J. Surhoff	1985	56.2
10	Andy Benes	1988	54.1
11	Tim Belcher	1983	50.9
12	Jeff Burroughs	1969	42.8
13	Darin Erstad*	1995	42.8
14	Pat Burrell*	1998	42.5
15	Bob Horner	1978	41.6

*Current Player

Conservatively, let’s say Pat is two-thirds done with his career. When his playing days are over, Pat will have accumulated at least 60-65 career WARP, placing him around 7^th all-time among #1 overall draft picks. Pat Burrell is decidedly not a bust, and if Phillies fans think they can replace 35+ homeruns, 100+ RBI, and 100+ walks in left field next year without Pat the Bat, they are sorely mistaken.