Phillies First-Half Review

I grew up in Allentown, PA and after every Phillies and Eagles game, the shitty Allentown Morning Call would “grade” each aspect of the game. I have no idea why this stupid, arbitrary evaluation fascinated me, but I would rush to grab the sports section before my dad used it as bathroom reading material so I could pour over each grade and approve/disapprove. Anyway, not a lot has changed mentally since I was 10, so I’ve graded each aspect of the Phillies for the team’s first 81 games. At the mid-point of 2008, the Phillies have a 43-38 record and a one-game lead in the NL East. Not bad, but their run-differential says the Phils should have at least 46 wins, so they have underperformed, without question.

In this review there will be some funny numbers like RAA and WARP. Read the links for an in-depth explanation, but basically RAA is “Runs Above Average,” a way to measure a player’s defensive value, and WARP is “Wins Above Replacement Player,” or the number of wins a player is worth compared to a mediocre MLB player. WARP takes hitting, fielding, running and pitching into consideration when evaluating a player, so I feel it’s the best way to express a player’s worth. Below, I have included batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage statistics for hitters, and win-loss records and earned run average for pitchers. Without further adieu, here is my Phillies 2008 First-Half Review:

CATCHER: - GRADE: C +

Carlos Ruiz, 0.5 WARP (.219 / .305 / .296) & Chris Coste, 2.3 WARP (.313 / .372 / .545)

Why is Carlos Ruiz the starting catcher again? Is it because his hitting is mediocre, or because he isn’t as good defensively as Coste? Not only is Coste almost lapping Ruiz in OPS (917 – 601), but he also leads in RAA (1 - 0), caught stealing percentage (29.4 – 25.5) and the staff universally prefers throwing to him. Wake up Charlie.

FIRST BASE - GRADE: D

Ryan Howard, 1.6 WARP (.214 / .309 / .454)

Not to beat a dead horse, but Howard is having a terrible season. Two years ago, he posted a 9.1 WARP en route to winning the MVP Award in his first full season. Last season he stumbled a bit, but he still clubbed 47 homeruns and 136 RBI. This year, Howard is on pace to shatter his own record of strikeouts in a season (199) and he has just a 95 OPS+, meaning his OPS is 5% worse than the league average. That being said, Howard could go off for 30 homeruns in the second half and no one will remember his poor start.

SECOND BASE - GRADE: A+

Chase Utley, 6.4 WARP (.293 / .382 / .595)

Even with his late-June swoon, Utley is having an MVP-caliber season. His 22 homeruns trail league-leader Dan Uggla by just one, and he is playing stellar defense, as evidenced by his +7 RAA. Chutley also leads the league in number of times hit by a pitch (11), a talent that cost him 30 games last season when an errand pitch broke his hand. We all know you are a tough, scrappy guy Chase, but GET OUT DA WAY!!!

SHORTSTOP - GRADE: C

Jimmy Rollins, 1.9 WARP (.265 / .329 / .426)

It seems like J-Roll has been snake-bitten this year with his early-season injury and all, but the fact is he isn’t producing like an MVP. His defensive statistics are slightly below average (-2 RAA) and his 755 OPS is 120 points lower than last year. On a positive note, Jimmy is flat-out unconscious on the base paths this year, stealing 17 bases in 17 attempts.

THIRD BASE - GRADE: B-

Pedro Feliz, 2.3 WARP (.264 / .316 / .430)

Not since the days of Scott Rolen have Phillies fans been treated to the defensive excellence Pedro displays at the hot corner on a daily basis. His +8 RAA leads the Phillies and if there is any justice in the world, Pedro will win a Gold Glove Award this year. He’s on pace for 20 homeruns and 80 RBI, but I could really care less what he does at the plate after watching Greg Dobbs and Abraham Nunez butcher third base last season.

LEFT FIELD - GRADE: A-

Pat Burrell, 4.4 WARP (.273 / .411 / .581)

Now, some may say I have an unhealthy man-crush on Pat The Bat, but he is unequivocally in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career. His projected 8.8 WARP would be the second-highest of his career and his defense in left field has improved dramatically. Last season, Pat’s -18 RAA in left field was the worst in baseball. This season, he has 0 errors and 6 assists. His lack of range gives him a 0 RAA, but I will take league-average defense from Burrell eight days a week.

CENTER FIELD - GRADE: C

Shane Victorino, 2.2 WARP (.276 / .350 / .377)

I may be in the minority on this one, but PLEASE trade Shane for some front-line starting pitching this season. The Flying Hawaiian’s defense is overrated in center (0 RAA as opposed to +11 RAA in right field last year) and he doesn’t hit or get on base enough to have a real impact on offense. I’d love to parlay his defensive reputation and base running exploits into a deal for Rich Harden.

RIGHT FIELD - GRADE: C+

Jason Werth, 2.6 WARP (.262 / .350 / .494) & Geoff Jenkins, 0.7 WARP (.239 / .289 / .378)

I don’t know if Charlie is dumb enough to keep playing Jenkins, or if it’s mandated by the front office because they forked over a stupid contract to a hitter with declining power and no idea of the strike zone, but Jason Werth should be playing every day. Werth is a better hitter, fielder (+4 RAA) and athlete (8 stolen bases in 9 attempts). I don’t even know what to say about Jenkins’ .289 OBP……..it’s inexcusable he is playing at all.

STARTING PITCHING - GRADE: C-

Cole Hamels, 4.1 WARP (7-5 / 3.27), Brett Myers, 0.4 WARP (3-9 / 5.84), Jamie Moyer, 2.3 WARP (7-5 / 4.09), Kyle Kendrick, 0.8 WARP (7-3 / 4.59), Adam Eaton, 1.4 WARP (2-6 / 4.86)

Other than Hamels, this group is awful. Don’t get me started on the “Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick are having good years” argument. Finesse pitches are more likely to get bombed in the playoffs. If you don’t agree with me, go check out the post-season statistics of Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine sometime, then check Curt Schilling and John Smoltz’s post-season numbers and get back to me. Just one more reason the Phils HAVE to make a push for C.C Sabathia or Rich Harden before the trading deadline. Hamels is a stud, Myers needs to go back to the pen, and the Phils need to package some pitching prospects and a starting outfielder for a top-tier pitcher to complement their talented lefty.

RELIEF PITCHING - GRADE: B+

Brad Lidge, 3.2 WARP (1-0 / 0.87), J.C. Romero, 2.2 WARP (4-1 / 1.74), Ryan Madson, 1.1 WARP (1-0 / 2.90), Chad Durbin, 1.8 WARP (2-1 / 1.47), Tom Gordon, 0.6 WARP (5-4 / 5.20), Clay Condrey, 0.6 WARP (1-1 / 4.36), Rudy Seanez, 1.6 WARP (3-3 / 2.45)

Other than the predictable meltdown of Tom Gordon, the Phillies pen has been the most consistent and reliable aspect of the team. Lidge has been perfect this season. I can’t stress the importance of having the lead in the 9^th inning and KNOWING the game is over. It’s probably the best move GM Ed Wade has ever made for the Phillies. Wait, he’s not our GM anymore? Wait, Wade traded the best closer in either league to the Phils for Michael Bourn and a couple of prospects who can’t cut it in Triple A? Payback is a bitch.

OVERALL - GRADE: B-

The Phillies' talent level is closer to that of a 96-win team than an 86-win team, their current projection, so it's hard to give them resounding praise even if they are in first place. Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge are all having legit All-Star season's, which offsets the disappointing years Brett Myers and Ryan Howard are having. No one thought the bullpen would be this good, which is a pleasant surprise, but the need for another front line starting pitcher, the kind of pitcher Brett Myers was supposed to be, is evident. I don't know if the Phils have the kind of prospects in the minors it would take to land a marque pitcher, but if the Phillies want to make a push for the World Series, they should mortgage the farm to do it. This team has a ton of talent, and one more key player and a second-half rebound from Jimmy Rollins or Ryan Howard could put them over the top.